We examine the labor market effects of AI chatbots using two large-scale adoption surveys (late 2023 and 2024) covering 11 exposed occupations (25,000 workers, 7,000 workplaces), linked to matched ...

The International Trade and Investment (ITI) Program holds three regular meetings annually, in winter, spring, and at the NBER Summer Institute. The ITI Program has 85 research associates, 11 faculty ...

The Development of the American Economy (DAE) program was one of the first research programs launched by Martin Feldstein in ...

New research by NBER affiliates, circulated prior to peer review for discussion and comment. NBER Working Papers may not offer policy recommendations or normative judgments about policies, but may ...

We develop and quantify a novel growth theory in which economic activity endogenously shifts from material production to quality improvements. Consumers derive utility from goods with differing ...

U.S. and European banking institutions were hit by a wave of distress in March 2023. Policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic reacted with an array of interventions, some targeting individual ...

This paper uses two large datasets built from quarterly labor force surveys to provide a global perspective on labor market downturns. The distribution of the severity and duration of labor market ...

We assess the efficacy of market-based systemic risk measures that rely on U.S. financial firms’ stock return co-movements with market- or sector-wide returns under stress from 1895 to 2023. Stress ...

Using data on 2.5 million great-grandchildren linked to their great-grandfathers in the US (1850–1940), we show that economic gaps persisted strongly across four generations despite major structural ...

This disagreement reflects a 60-year history of misapplication of the neoclassical theory of investment to interpret empirical work and guide policy analysis. In this article I reconsider the ...

In recent years, field experiments have reshaped policy worldwide, but scaling ideas remains a thorny challenge. Perhaps the most important issue facing policymakers today is deciding which ideas to ...

Using a regression discontinuity design and administrative data, we study a Danish policy that cut welfare benefits for refugees, increasing crime among affected individuals. Linking refugees to ...