"A sustained $10 increase in oil prices is expected to increase inflation by 0.4% and lower GDP by 0.4%": Apollo Global Management 's ( APO -4.34%) chief economist Torston Slok says oil is fueling U.S. stagflation fears, adding to the effect expected from import tariffs.

Rather, it is geopolitical factors—specifically, escalating tensions in the Middle East—that are unsettling markets and pushing prices higher.

If the price of crude oil does not return to around $65 per barrel, it will subtract tenths from the GDP and delay the moderation of price increases. Just a few days after the Bank of Spain and BBVA's research department in Spain presented their macroeconomic projections - which lowered their growth forecast for the country to 2.

When the conflict began on June 13, it led to a significant surge in oil prices. But come June 17, and all gains have been erased. Oil, which was trading north of $75 on June 13, was quoted at $69.77 at press time.

That sent the yield on the 10-year Treasury up to 4.41% from 4.36% late Thursday. Higher yields can tug down on prices for stocks and other investments, while making it more expensive for U.S. companies and households to borrow money.